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Vol.53, No.6, 389 ~ 398, 2015
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| Title |
| Evaluation of Failure Probability and Remaining Gas-Pipe Lifetime using Statistics with Hypothetical Pit Data |
| 최병학 Byung Hak Choe , 김성준 Seong Jun Kim , 심종헌 Jong Heon Shim , 김우식 Woo Sik Kim , 김철만 Chul Man Kim |
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| Abstract |
| Corrosion data obtained from in-line inspection can be applied to assess present integrity as well as to predict future integrity of gas pipelines. This can be accomplished by using a combination of probabilistic analyses and simulation. With a deterministic method, failure models (e.g., NG 18 or ASME B31G)can only provide “Safe or Fail” criteria for corroded pipelines. However, a probabilistic method can offer “Probability of Failure (POF)” using the same models. This paper is focused on determining the POF for hypothetical corrosion-pit data of a gas pipeline. The study presented a ten-step procedure for obtaining the POF of a gas pipeline using three statistical methods (i.e., Monte Carlo, FOSM: First-Order Second-Moment, and FORM: First-Order Reliability Method). Furthermore, the coefficient of variance, regarding the value of POF sensitivity in relation to data variation, was mostly affected by the corrosion-depth parameter of the pit data. |
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| Key Words |
| gas pipeline, corrosion data, probability of failure, statistical method, Monte Carlo, FOSM, FORM |
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